金融(rong)財(cai)(cai)經翻譯(yi)是億維北京翻譯(yi)公司的主要業務之一，我(wo)們至今翻譯(yi)了大(da)量的金融(rong)財(cai)(cai)經方面的內(nei)容，得(de)到(dao)了客戶的好評(ping)。

關注美國圣誕消費數據和四季度GDP增速給美股帶來的提振。我們注意到,美國股市和美元匯率自金融危機以來的負相關開始變得不明顯。今年前11個月,美元和美股走勢在70%的交易日是相反的。但12月以來美元的反彈,一部分是來源于投資者對歐洲和新興市場主權債券的擔憂,但重要的是美國經濟復蘇的趨勢進一步得到確立,美元價值得到提升。在此背景下,美國股市并不總是隨著美元上漲而下滑,12月美元和股市走勢僅僅在50%的交易日是相反的。因此,未來美國股市的走勢將更多回歸經濟基本面的支撐。短期內,圣誕消費和四季度GDP增速將是比較關鍵的因素。我們認為在經濟復蘇預期不斷增強和就業情況趨于穩定的大背景下,節日消費有望好于以前的悲觀預期,四季度GDP增長創今年新高,明年第一季度可望出現勞動力市場從萎縮到平穩的變化拐點,美國股市有望在2010年第一季度延續上漲行情。
譯文：

The consumption data for the Christmas and growth of GDP for the fourth quarter have injected vigor to the US stock market. We notice that the negative correlation between the US stock market and dollar exchange rate has begun not very obvious since the financial crisis. During the first 11 months of this year, the dollar rate went against the stock market in 70% of trading days. The rebound of US dollars as of December is partly due to the investors’ worry about the sovereignty bonds of the European and the emerging markets. Nevertheless, the more important thing is that the trend of revival for the American economy has been further confirmed and the US dollar value has been increased. Under the background, the US market does not always slide with the hike of US dollars, as the dollars went against the stock market in 50% of the trading days of December. Therefore the trend of US stock market is more bolstered by the economy. The Christmas consumption and the growth of GDP for the fourth quarter will remain the key factor recently. We forecast that amid the increasing expectation of economic recovery and growingly stable job market, the holiday consumption may beat the pessimistic expectation and the GDP growth for the fourth quarter will hit a new year high. The labor market may see a turning point from squeeze to stability and the US stock market is forecast to continue the hike in the first quarter of 2010.

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